Sunday, January 5, 2014

Ev sales for 2013 and beyond

Good coverage of annual sales of evs at

My estimate of sales growth in the US for plug in vehicles is:

2013 ..... Was a 85%  growth for 97,000
2014 ..... 35%. ..130,000
2015 ..... 30%. ..168,500
2016 ..... 35%. ..227,500

Tesla worldwide sales estimates.
Q4 2013...   6145.  (Actual 6900)
Q1 - Q4 2014 ....  5911, 6390, 7144, 8600
Updated estimates...1/15/2014
Q1 - Q4 2014 .... 6340, 6844, 7035, 8980

Updated estimates...7/20/2014
Q1 - Q4 2014 .... (6457), 7599, 9000, 9500

Updated estimates...8/09/2014
Q1 - Q4 2014 .... (6457), (7579), 8000, 10,600

Updated estimates...8/24/2014
Q1 - Q4 2014 .... (6457), (7579), 7164, 10,800 = 32,000

Updated estimates...8/30/2014
Q1 - Q4 2014 .... (6457), (7579), 7764, 10,800 = 32,600

My revised was off by 20 for the Q2 sales number.  Raising Q4 a little for Tesla as I think they will send some extra cars to sales centers to sell as new off the lot cars late in 2014.  Mostly in the US for people wanting to get one for the 2014 tax credit.  And who wants to wait, really...  Buying off the lot is how we do things in America.

Revising down Q3 due to slow run of the line in August after restart, August 4.

Updated estimates...12/03/2014 - due to line problems with P85D first-runs
Q1 - Q4 2014 .... (6457), (7579), (7785), 10,100 = 32,021
2015 - ModelS 41600  ModelX 10300

Volt US sales estimates for 2014.... 24600
Leaf US sales estimates for 2014 .... 27000. --- as of August, looks like 30,000 is possible.

Those are for year over year growth.  Let's review next January.

2014 end of year
Q1 - Q4 2014 .... (6457), (7579), (7785), (9,834) = 31,655

Telsa Q1 2015 estimate  4/2/2015
Q1 - Q4 2015 ....  9371, 8700, 11100, 13400 = 42,571

Q1 - Q4 2015 ....  (10,030), 8400, 11100, 13400 = 42,571

Wednesday, January 1, 2014

Oil Prices - Jan 1, 2014

This picture shows that oil hasn't changed much during 2013.
Let's compare to early 2013.  WTI has gone up a few dollars since January 1, 2013.  Brent is flat right now.

About a $2 decrease in oil prices shows that we really haven't progressed in either direction and oil prices just simply fluctuated during the year.

There are a few new EVs coming out during 2014 but not a lot of progress is being made for enough compelling models for the USA car-buyer to choose from.  The automakers are all looking at new battery technologies and ways to save money during manufacturing and this should make for a much more dynamic EV marketplace in the late 2015 and early 2016 time period.

The countries absorbing many of the EVs are those which have high incentives.  Norway, Denmark, Holland and a few others have given away a large amount of incentives to start to move new EV sales.  Norway is very interesting as they do not charge the import car tax which they do charge on ICE vehicles.  BMW, Nissan, Tesla and others are taking advantage of that by fast becoming a few of the top cars selling in Norway during the fall of 2013.  In the USA, the plug-in vehicle fleet is nowhere near the top 50 models sold across the country.  Tesla does lead Luxury Sedan sales in richer zip-codes and primarily in California.  However, Tesla is now sending at least 30% of their cars overseas to Europe now due to the limited time exposure of their incentives for new EV sales.

One other example is the huge number of plug-in CUV sales made by Mitsubishi in the form of the Plug-in Hybrid Outlander:

EV Charging resource list

This originates at:

This is a good list for EV drivers who want to find public charging while travelling.

Beyond Superchargers - Road Tripping Resources
High powered charging stations are being built out by different groups, companies and organizations to that we can better enjoy our cars.
Here are some other resources that consist mostly of the medium power Level II chargers:
More commonly known resources are listed below and there is a mixed variety of charging
Here is a thread with information about how Chargepoint works: - tracks and maps charging stations. They differ from some of the others in that they verify a station before listing it.
If you have range questions you here is a resource. You just select the car you are using and enter your estimated speed and give yourself a good buffer. This map does not compensate for crossing bodies of water properly, so keep that in mind.
Hotels with Charging:
I know that there is more out there so, please chime in!