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Sunday, January 5, 2014

Ev sales for 2013 and beyond

Good coverage of annual sales of evs at www.insideevs.com

My estimate of sales growth in the US for plug in vehicles is:

2013 ..... Was a 85%  growth for 97,000
2014 ..... 35%. ..130,000
2015 ..... 30%. ..168,500
2016 ..... 35%. ..227,500

Tesla worldwide sales estimates.
Q4 2013...   6145.  (Actual 6900)
Q1 - Q4 2014 ....  5911, 6390, 7144, 8600
Updated estimates...1/15/2014
Q1 - Q4 2014 .... 6340, 6844, 7035, 8980

Updated estimates...7/20/2014
Q1 - Q4 2014 .... (6457), 7599, 9000, 9500

Updated estimates...8/09/2014
Q1 - Q4 2014 .... (6457), (7579), 8000, 10,600

Updated estimates...8/24/2014
Q1 - Q4 2014 .... (6457), (7579), 7164, 10,800 = 32,000

Updated estimates...8/30/2014
Q1 - Q4 2014 .... (6457), (7579), 7764, 10,800 = 32,600

My revised was off by 20 for the Q2 sales number.  Raising Q4 a little for Tesla as I think they will send some extra cars to sales centers to sell as new off the lot cars late in 2014.  Mostly in the US for people wanting to get one for the 2014 tax credit.  And who wants to wait, really...  Buying off the lot is how we do things in America.

Revising down Q3 due to slow run of the line in August after restart, August 4.

Updated estimates...12/03/2014 - due to line problems with P85D first-runs
Q1 - Q4 2014 .... (6457), (7579), (7785), 10,100 = 32,021
2015 - ModelS 41600  ModelX 10300


Volt US sales estimates for 2014.... 24600
Leaf US sales estimates for 2014 .... 27000. --- as of August, looks like 30,000 is possible.

Those are for year over year growth.  Let's review next January.

2014 end of year
Q1 - Q4 2014 .... (6457), (7579), (7785), (9,834) = 31,655

Telsa Q1 2015 estimate  4/2/2015
Q1 - Q4 2015 ....  9371, 8700, 11100, 13400 = 42,571


Q1 - Q4 2015 ....  (10,030), 8400, 11100, 13400 = 42,571

2 comments:

  1. On Feb. 19th, Tesla gave guidance for 6400 sales for Q1 worldwide.

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